Thursday, July 24, 2008

If you catch just one biotech bull market, you will never have to work again

I've said that many times the average biotech bull market has been good for 566% gains in less than three years.

At the moment, biotech is looking incredibly bullish right now. Yesterday was the turning point...
Yesterday, shares of biotech giant Genentech shot up 13% as big pharmaceutical company Roche offered to buy it out completely. Roche will have to up its offer... likely valuing Genentech at over $100 billion.

If $100 billion Genentech can sell to a "Big Pharma" company, then every biotech stock has to be in play right now. And biotech just went from the back pages to the front pages... This is when you want to be a buyer.

Biotech has been the quiet performer this year... Oil, bank stocks, and real estate have garnered all the headlines. But biotech has been the stealth winner... Shares of XBI – the S&P Biotech Index Fund – have quietly hit new highs.

Consider the Rydex Biotech Fund (RYOIX), for example. Back in 2000, during the last biotech peak, this fund had $1.4 billion invested. Then, for eight years, biotech stocks did nothing. Assets in the fund absolutely collapsed... bottoming earlier this year at around $60 million – that's more than a 95% fall in assets.

But, what's this? In just the last few weeks, assets in the fund have more than doubled! Investors are quietly creeping in.
Biotechs are an exceptional bargain now, when you size them up on simple, traditional measures of biotech value (like price-to-sales, for instance).
In short, while the companies' stock prices have done nothing in eight years... their businesses have kept growing, so shares are a great value.

Now biotech meets our three criteria for buying:
1.
It's cheap. The businesses have grown for eight years while the share prices have done nothing.
2.
It's ignored/hated – as the 95% peak-to-trough fall in the assets of the Rydex Biotech Fund suggests.
3.
We're finally seeing an uptrend. The Rydex fund has doubled in size in no time. The XBI Biotech Index Fund is hitting new highs.

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